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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 3

Buffalo Bills 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(9:32) 2-T.Bass 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +2.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.53 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 3, worth +0.00 EP
KICK +1.54 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.12 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EP