Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 9 at the 62

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

(2:13) 19-T.Morstead punts 43 yards to TB 19, Center-47-J.Harris. 25-G.Bernard to TB 20 for 1 yard (17-O.Zaccheaus).

The Three Options

GO -1.13 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.90 EP
66% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.22 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model