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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 13

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 – Atlanta Falcons 17

What Actually Happened

(1:53) 3-R.Succop 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.01 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +3.11 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 13, worth -0.79 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 23, worth -1.15 EP
PUNT -0.72 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model