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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 12 at the 53

Atlanta Falcons 17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27

What Actually Happened

(7:33) 19-T.Morstead punts 44 yards to TB 9, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.12 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.88 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 53, worth -2.75 EP
KICK -1.38 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model