Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 13 at the 78

Atlanta Falcons 17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27

What Actually Happened

(13:36) 19-T.Morstead punts 53 yards to TB 25, Center-47-J.Harris. 25-G.Bernard to TB 31 for 6 yards (40-K.Smith; 30-Q.Ollison). ATL-92-A.Ogundeji was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -2.53 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.71 EP
70% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 78, worth -4.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model