4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 15 at the 48

Atlanta Falcons 17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

What Actually Happened

(6:19) 19-T.Morstead punts 35 yards to TB 13, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 25-G.Bernard.

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.81 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.59 EP
KICK -0.77 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model