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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 3

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

What Actually Happened

(8:43) 7-Y.Koo 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-19-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +2.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.67 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 3, worth +0.08 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.07 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP