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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 21

New York Giants 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(13:17) 5-G.Gano 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +0.50 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.88 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +1.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 31, worth -1.94 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model