Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 11 at the 98

Miami Dolphins 0 – New York Giants 0

(1:01) 5-M.Palardy punts 50 yards to NYG 48, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 83-P.Cooper to MIA 37 for 15 yards (42-C.Fejedelem).

The Three Options

GO -3.69 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth +0.50 EP
63% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 98, worth -6.12 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (115 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model