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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 33

New York Giants 6 – Miami Dolphins 17

What Actually Happened

(5:04) 5-G.Gano 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +0.44 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.10 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 33, worth -1.30 EP
KICK +0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 43, worth -1.80 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model