Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 18 at the 83

New York Giants 6 – Miami Dolphins 17

What Actually Happened

(10:20) 9-R.Dixon punts 36 yards to MIA 47, Center-58-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-20-J.Love. PENALTY on NYG-31-K.Crossen, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at MIA 47.

The Three Options

GO -3.21 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.38 EP
74% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 83, worth -4.85 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model