Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 20 at the 83

New York Giants 6 – Miami Dolphins 10

(15:00) 9-R.Dixon punts 44 yards to MIA 39, Center-58-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-20-J.Love.

The Three Options

GO -3.35 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.36 EP
75% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 83, worth -4.92 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model