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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 8 at the 61

Miami Dolphins 10 – New York Giants 6

What Actually Happened

(3:40) 5-M.Palardy punts 46 yards to NYG 15, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 83-P.Cooper.

The Three Options

GO -1.11 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.69 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 61, worth -3.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 20, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model