4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 69

Miami Dolphins 10 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(14:13) 5-M.Palardy punts 65 yards to NYG 4, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 83-P.Cooper to NYG 15 for 11 yards (43-A.Van Ginkel).

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.94 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 69, worth -3.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 27, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model