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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 47

New York Giants 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(10:51) 9-R.Dixon punts 36 yards to MIA 11, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 8-J.Holland.

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.78 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 47, worth -2.96 EP
KICK -1.58 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -3.09 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 13, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP