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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 4 at the 52

New York Giants 3 – Miami Dolphins 3

What Actually Happened

(4:28) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to MIA 11, Center-58-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-47-C.Brown.

The Three Options

GO -0.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.56 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 52, worth -2.89 EP
KICK -1.83 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.68 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 15, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model