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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 30

Miami Dolphins 0 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(7:12) 7-J.Sanders 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +0.96 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.53 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 30, worth -1.23 EP
KICK +1.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 40, worth -1.76 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model