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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 17 at the 72

Buffalo Bills 0 – New England Patriots 8

What Actually Happened

(2:19) 3-M.Haack punts 54 yards to NE 18, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 1-N.Harry MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by BUF-33-S.Neal at NE 14.

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.61 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 72, worth -4.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 30, worth -1.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model