Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 75

New England Patriots 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

(9:15) 7-J.Bailey punts 15 yards to NE 40, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.00 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.92 EP
53% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 75, worth -4.59 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model