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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 71

New England Patriots 14 – Buffalo Bills 10

What Actually Happened

(5:56) 7-J.Bailey punts 71 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback. Kick into end zone.

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.74 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 71, worth -3.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 29, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model