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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 15 at the 16

New England Patriots 11 – Buffalo Bills 10

What Actually Happened

(13:05) 6-N.Folk 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +1.15 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.36 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 16, worth -0.46 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model