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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 33

New England Patriots 11 – Buffalo Bills 10

What Actually Happened

(3:09) 10-M.Jones up the middle to BUF 32 for 1 yard (99-H.Phillips). Buffalo challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

The Three Options

GO +2.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.92 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 33, worth -1.43 EP
KICK +0.36 EP
  • 59% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 43, worth -2.03 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model