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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 50

New England Patriots 11 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(:07) 7-J.Bailey punts 45 yards to BUF 5, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-43-C.Munson.

The Three Options

GO +0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +0.85 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 50, worth -0.62 EP
KICK -0.07 EP
  • 15% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 85% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -0.62 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 14, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model