4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 59

Buffalo Bills 7 – New England Patriots 11

What Actually Happened

(1:56) 3-M.Haack punts 34 yards to NE 25, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

The Three Options

GO -0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.26 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 59, worth -2.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.63 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 18, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP