Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 80

New England Patriots 11 – Buffalo Bills 7

(3:10) 7-J.Bailey punts 46 yards to BUF 34, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.16 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.88 EP
55% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 80, worth -4.61 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model