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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 23

New England Patriots 8 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(11:31) 6-N.Folk 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +1.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.26 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 23, worth -1.28 EP
KICK +0.97 EP
What Happened
  • 83% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 33, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP