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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 60

Cincinnati Bengals 22 – Los Angeles Chargers 38

What Actually Happened

(5:03) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short left to 85-T.Higgins [94-C.Rumph].

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.50 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 60, worth -2.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.68 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 19, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model