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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 4

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(11:36) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 13-K.Allen for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.55 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 4, worth -0.10 EP
KICK +1.56 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -1.05 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model