Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 16 at the 78

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 16

What Actually Happened

(14:55) 10-K.Huber punts 50 yards to LAC 28, Center-46-C.Harris. 7-A.Roberts pushed ob at LAC 43 for 15 yards (33-T.Flowers). CIN-55-L.Wilson was injured during the play. PENALTY on CIN-17-S.Morgan, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at LAC 43.

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.27 EP
69% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 78, worth -4.26 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model