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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 36

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(1:34) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 11-M.Jones to LA 30 for 6 yards (4-J.Fuller).

The Three Options

GO +1.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.45 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 36, worth -2.19 EP
KICK +0.25 EP
  • 68% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 46, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model