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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 73

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(5:04) 6-J.Hekker punts 46 yards to JAX 27, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 4-J.Mickens.

The Three Options

GO -1.37 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.87 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 73, worth -4.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 31, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model