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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 69

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(9:05) 9-L.Cooke punts 68 yards to LA 1, Center-46-R.Matiscik, downed by JAX-20-D.Thomas.

The Three Options

GO -1.49 EP
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.23 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 69, worth -4.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 27, worth -1.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model