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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 12 at the 49

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Los Angeles Rams 37

What Actually Happened

(4:58) 9-L.Cooke punts 40 yards to LA 9, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 10-C.Kupp.

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.18 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.07 EP
KICK -0.58 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.11 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 14, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model