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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 37

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Los Angeles Rams 23

What Actually Happened

(8:39) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short right to 80-J.O'Shaughnessy (5-J.Ramsey).

The Three Options

GO +1.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.62 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 37, worth -2.01 EP
KICK +0.29 EP
  • 66% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 46, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model