4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 6 at the 42

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Los Angeles Rams 13

What Actually Happened

(2:22) 9-L.Cooke punts 31 yards to LA 11, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 10-C.Kupp.

The Three Options

GO +0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.48 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 42, worth -2.17 EP
KICK -0.28 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 12, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP