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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 12 at the 62

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Los Angeles Rams 13

What Actually Happened

(6:20) 9-L.Cooke punts 53 yards to LA 9, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 10-C.Kupp.

The Three Options

GO -1.70 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.54 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 62, worth -3.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 21, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model