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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 9 at the 41

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(14:12) 8-R.Sanchez punts 40 yards to HOU 1, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-16-A.Dulin.

The Three Options

GO -0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.68 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 41, worth -2.34 EP
KICK -0.32 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.97 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model