Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 71

Houston Texans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 7

(3:40) 11-C.Johnston punts 50 yards to IND 21, Center-46-J.Weeks. 21-N.Hines to IND 28 for 7 yards (51-K.Grugier-Hill; 57-K.Pierre-Louis).

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.97 EP
61% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 71, worth -3.93 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model