Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 15 at the 74

Houston Texans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 24

What Actually Happened

(5:38) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short left to 13-B.Cooks pushed ob at HOU 40 for 14 yards (37-K.Willis). Houston challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

The Three Options

GO -2.76 EP

What Happened

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.66 EP
74% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 74, worth -4.28 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.34 EP