Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 20 at the 85

Houston Texans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 24

(8:55) 11-C.Johnston punts 51 yards to IND 34, Center-46-J.Weeks. 21-N.Hines to IND 49 for 15 yards (43-N.Hewitt).

The Three Options

GO -3.40 EP

23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.62 EP
77% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 85, worth -4.90 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model