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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Houston Texans
4th & 6 at the 40
Houston Texans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 21
What Actually Happened
(14:19) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass incomplete short left to 12-N.Collins.
The Three Options
GO
+0.03 EP
What Happened
-
35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.63 EP
- 65% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 40, worth -1.89 EP
KICK
+0.20 EP
Model's Pick
- 59% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
- 41% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.64 EP
PUNT
-0.03 EP
- Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
