Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 14 at the 55

Indianapolis Colts 21 – Houston Texans 0

(4:03) 8-R.Sanchez punts 41 yards to HOU 14, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 25-D.King to HOU 18 for 4 yards (16-A.Dulin; 44-Z.Franklin).

The Three Options

GO -1.07 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.06 EP
68% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 55, worth -3.00 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model