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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 31

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(3:16) 2-C.Wentz up the middle to HOU 29 for 2 yards (25-D.King).

The Three Options

GO +2.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.69 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 31, worth -1.57 EP
KICK +0.96 EP
  • 78% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 41, worth -1.99 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model