4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 52

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(11:35) 8-R.Sanchez punts 43 yards to HOU 9, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 25-D.King.

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.80 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 52, worth -3.04 EP
KICK -1.63 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.99 EP
PUNT -0.84 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 15, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model