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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Dallas Cowboys
4th & 2 at the 34
Dallas Cowboys 0 – New Orleans Saints 0
What Actually Happened
(5:16) (No Huddle) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short middle to 88-C.Lamb.
The Three Options
GO
+1.36 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.68 EP
- 42% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 34, worth -1.91 EP
KICK
+0.52 EP
- 73% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
- 27% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 44, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT
-0.36 EP
- New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
