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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 50

Dallas Cowboys 20 – New Orleans Saints 10

What Actually Happened

(3:52) 5-B.Anger punts 37 yards to NO 13, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 11-D.Harris.

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +1.19 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 50, worth -2.19 EP
KICK -0.88 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.19 EP
PUNT -0.67 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 14, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP