Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 69

Dallas Cowboys 20 – New Orleans Saints 10

What Actually Happened

(5:27) 5-B.Anger punts 37 yards to NO 32, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 11-D.Harris ran ob at NO 34 for 2 yards. PENALTY on NO-38-J.Heath, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 34.

The Three Options

GO -1.07 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.62 EP
52% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 69, worth -3.52 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model