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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 44

Dallas Cowboys 20 – New Orleans Saints 10

What Actually Happened

(10:30) 5-B.Anger punts 31 yards to NO 13, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.22 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 44, worth -2.31 EP
KICK -0.56 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 12, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP