4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 13 at the 37

New Orleans Saints 10 – Dallas Cowboys 20

What Actually Happened

(14:14) 4-B.Gillikin punts 33 yards to DAL 4, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-84-L.Humphrey.

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.42 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 37, worth -1.74 EP
KICK +0.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 46, worth -2.47 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.51 EP