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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 65

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(4:13) 6-P.Harvin punts 64 yards to BAL 1, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.21 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 65, worth -3.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 23, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP